What Are Player Props?

Player props are bets on whether a player will perform OVER or UNDER a specific statistical line. Unlike traditional sports betting, you're not picking winners and losers of games—you're predicting individual player performances.

📌 Example

Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 Passing TDs

You win if Mahomes throws 2 or more touchdown passes. You lose if he throws 0 or 1.

Props can cover any stat: points, rebounds, assists, passing yards, strikeouts, hits, goals, saves, and more. The two biggest platforms for pick'em style props are Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks.

👀 See It In Action

Check out our free prop samples to see real data from today's games.

Underdog Fantasy vs PrizePicks

🎯 Underdog Fantasy

Entry Types: 2-5 picks per entry
Payouts: Fixed multipliers (3x, 6x, 10x, 20x)
Pushes: If a player hits EXACTLY the line, it pushes (refunded or removed)
Insurance: Some entry types offer 1-pick insurance
Flexibility: Can mix sports in same entry

💎 PrizePicks

Entry Types: 2-6 picks per entry
Payouts: Fixed multipliers (3x, 6x, 10x, 20x, 37.5x Power Play)
Pushes: Typically moves down to next tier (e.g., 4-pick → 3-pick payout)
Flex Mode: Can get 1 wrong and still win reduced payout
Power Play: 6-pick entries at 37.5x payout (no flex option, must hit all 6)

Understanding Payouts & Multipliers

Both platforms use fixed payout multipliers based on how many picks you include in your entry. The more picks you add, the higher the potential payout—but the harder it is to win.

Underdog Fantasy Payouts

Entry Type	Picks Required	Payout Multiplier	$10 Entry Wins
2-Pick	2/2 correct	3x	$30
3-Pick	3/3 correct	6x	$60
4-Pick	4/4 correct	10x	$100
5-Pick	5/5 correct	20x	$200

PrizePicks Payouts (Standard Mode)

Entry Type	Picks Required	Payout Multiplier	$10 Entry Wins
2-Pick	2/2 correct	3x	$30
3-Pick	3/3 correct	6x	$60
4-Pick	4/4 correct	10x	$100
5-Pick	5/5 correct	20x	$200
6-Pick Power Play	6/6 correct	37.5x	$375

⚠️ The Multiplier Trap

While 20x and 100x payouts look amazing, remember that you need to hit EVERY pick. Going 4/5 or 5/6 means you lose your entire entry.

Win Rate Math: If each pick is 50/50, your odds of winning a 5-pick entry are only 3.125% (0.5^5). This is why most experienced players stick to 2-3 pick entries.

🔥 What Sets PresidentLeach Data Apart

Most prop data you find online is based on mean projections. But there's a critical flaw with using mean data for props: mean doesn't tell you the most likely outcome.

📈 Mean vs Median: The Critical Difference

Mean (Average): Adds up all possible outcomes and divides by the number of outcomes. Gets skewed by outliers.

Median (Middle Value): The middle point where 50% of outcomes are above and 50% are below. This is what matters for OVER/UNDER bets.

📊 Real-World Example

Let's say a running back's projected rushing yards distribution looks like this:

• 40% chance: 45 yards
• 30% chance: 65 yards
• 20% chance: 85 yards
• 10% chance: 150 yards (outlier game)

Mean projection: 71.5 yards

Median projection: 55 yards

The line: 62.5 yards

If you trust the mean (71.5), you'd take the OVER at 62.5. But the median shows you're more likely to hit the UNDER since 70% of outcomes fall below 65 yards. That one outlier game skewed the mean up by 16 yards!

This is why PresidentLeach converts all mean projections to median projections. You get a more accurate picture of what's actually likely to happen, not what happens "on average" when you include unlikely explosive games.

✅ How We Do It

We take industry-standard mean projections and apply statistical models to convert them to median values based on each stat type's distribution (normal, Poisson, skewed, etc.). This gives you the true 50/50 line—the point where a player is equally likely to go OVER or UNDER.

Then we compare that median to the actual prop line. If the median is 62.5 and the line is 55.5, you've found edge on the OVER.

Try Free Samples →

How to Use PresidentLeach Prop Tables

Key Columns Explained

PROP: The player and stat type (e.g., "Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 Passing TDs")
EXPROI: Expected Return on Investment—your edge on this prop as a percentage
EDGE: How much better/worse the line is compared to our median projection
WIN %: Probability this pick hits based on median projections
MULTIPLIER: Underdog's payout boost applied to props they consider "harder" to hit. A multiplier of "Higher1.06x" means your standard payout (3x, 6x, etc.) gets boosted by 1.06x. So a 3-pick entry would pay 6.36x instead of 6x.
THRESHOLD: Our calculated fair line based on median

Finding Value

Look for positive EXPROI - This means the prop is +EV (positive expected value)
Check the EDGE - Bigger edges = more confidence
Win % sweet spot: 52-58% for singles, 50-53% for parlays
Use filters - Search by player, team, or sport to build targeted entries
Compare platforms - Toggle between Underdog and PrizePicks to find the best lines

💡 Pro Tip: The 2-Pick Strategy

Focus on high-confidence 2-pick entries (3x payout) with props showing 55%+ win probability each. This gives you a ~30% chance of hitting both picks (0.55 × 0.55 = 0.30). Over time, 30% win rate at 3x payout = +90% ROI.

Compare that to 5-pick entries where you need 50%+ edges on all 5 picks just to break even!

📊 How Props Work