2026 MLB All-Star Game
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Welcome back! We have an interesting MLB Showdown slate today for the MLB ASG. While playing this game can be fun and add to the viewing pleasure, there are a lot of unknowns so don’t extend your bankroll too much! With that being said, there is still a strategy we can attack to have success here. I was able to take down the 2024 ASG mini-max following this strategy.
The hardest and most important thing we can do when trying to predict the ASG is figure out projected At-Bats for players. Determining when these ABs will come will also help us determine who to pair together. The key will be to take a smaller stack of a few players who could correlate and produce a big inning that will carry you. Mix in a late HR and you’ve got a winner!
While we can get into correlated pieces from the starting lineup later, a big advantage for one-offs will be to target the away team, in this case, the American league. It might seem minor, but guaranteeing a 9th inning will increase the chances these bench players will get an extra AB. I actually feel like this trickles up to the starters as well. NL manager will be more willing to take the NL starters out after 2 ABs because he is aware the backups need to get in. While the AL starters may actually get a 3rd AB.
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Its warm in Philly with 10 mph wind blowing out to left-center. I am not taking Pitchers anyways, but this further confirms the good spot for hitters.
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Contrary to popular belief, I don’t tend to take pitchers in this format. I am not opposed to mixing some into your lineup, but be very careful about what pitcher you take and who they could potentially face during the game.
Cease and Sanchez will be the most popular Ps just because they are known will get 1 inning. But we are taking them against the top of the ASG lineups, basically the 6 best hitters in the league?
Their prices are reasonable in the sub $6k range, but I would tread lightly. Not saying its impossible, I just tend to avoid it. If you take a P, target someone with massive K upside since thats your best chance to a winning score. Jhoan Duran would be a good target. Home town closer he should pitch the top of the 9th regardless of score. Be mindful to not include bench AL hitters in lineups with Duran.
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The stacking for ASG can be tricky. With only 6 roster spots, we will need to find guys that are correlated. Thats obviously easier with the starting lineup since we know who will hit after each other. With it being near impossible to know who will be correlated later in the game, my strategy is typically a correlated piece from the starting lineup, with one-off bench players mixed in.
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Before I start, take all of this with a grain of salt. Its the ASG, we don’t really know what’s going to happen. Adley Rutschman could pinch hit for Mike Trout and then swap to C and the LF move to CF and a new LF come into the game, or whatever it may be! But all we can do is go with things that can most likely be predicted.
American League:
As the visitors, I like the AL here to have a few extra ABs to go around. The biggest thing that stands out to me is the composition of the AL bench. It is 2 Cs, 6 IFs and 3 OFs. That really brings the AL OFs into play. With Mike Trout leading off and just coming back from injury, I think that AL leadoff OF spot will be a key piece to nail. Right now, I am expecting Rafaela to come in to play CF halfway through the game. But this still gives Trout a real shot at 3 ABs. While popular, he will most likely be my top player.
Boost to any AL OF though: Trout, Bellinger, Greene as starters. Rafaela, Arozarena, Peters as backups.The 2nd and 3rd spots in the AL order is tough to figure out. DH is the most likely spot in my opinion to have 3 different players sub in, that puts Yordan at 2 ABs in my mind. Murakami likely to be subbed in but I have a feeling Yandy Diaz will come in for him at some point too. The 3 hole is the C position. While typically only 2 Cs play in the field and the 3rd C will DH, I could see Shea, Dingler, and Adley all catching due to the composition of the roster. That would lead Shea 2 ABs, Dingler 1.5, Adley 1.
As the AL order goes on, I still like the AL IFs despite having more reserves. 2 ABs of Caminero, Witt, Rice could be plenty enough to get you there. Actually like targeting those spots over the DH and C position. The 4, 5, 6, 7 stack for AL is really jumping out to me.
National League:
Biggest thing with the NL will be factoring in the home field players. The NL is carrying 3 1Bs with Freeman, Harper, Olson. While Olson may be more deserving of the first 1B off the bench, do you really think they won’t let Harper get out there? This also complicates Schwarber. The DH is an easy spot to add in pinch hitters, but the fans are going to want to see Schwarber. This really complicates whether Schwarber will get a 3rd AB. The NL is also carrying 3 Cs + Herrera (C/DH). Safe to assume Herrera just DH, but where does that leave Hunter Goodman? At this time, I am assuming Goodman will come in at DH. With the NL C in the 9 hole, they won’t have a chance to sub in 3 guys there.
So where does that leave us? I have 1, 2, 3 holes all with the likeliest to get 3 guys subbed in. The NL is carrying solid OF depth as well so Carroll could follow behind Soto and Wood in RF. That definitely complicates taking the top of the NL order. What stands out most to me is again the middle of the order, NL SS, 3B, 2B should only have 1 sub each so those starters are in a great spot to get more run. This makes my favorite NL hitter CJ Abrams.
Tread lightly with the NL reserves, specifically the bottom of the order (Arraez, Walker, PCA, Contreras) as those 6-9 spots in the order may only get 1 AB if the NL doesn’t bat in the 9th or struggles to turn the lineup over.
Conclusion:
All of these hitters are great. If Schwarber and Soto go back to back in the 1st and don’t get another AB, no one would be shocked. So while I highlighted positions that may have a higher shot at more ABs, that is not a slight at the quality of hitters.
Target a few correlated pieces from the starting lineups, mix in a one-off from a scarce position and let’s see what happens! Just a reminder, I will not be playing Ps, but you still can.